They’ve been saying that for the last 18 months at least. They’re always just a few months behind…
I picked double out of a hat, obviously there’s some intelligence gap that’s too small for a price premium beyond a certain point, but it seems like OpenAI and Anthropic’s revenue keeps climbing, so I don’t think we’ve hit it.
The gap really is closing, though. I don't remember the source, but there was a publication recently stating that it's 4 months at this point. So, 4 months where you can charge premium prices for the small subset of tasks where only a frontier model will do. I have to think the big AI duopoly is at an inflection point where most of their customers haven't just yet realized that they're being fleeced.
well, it is true. there is a price ceiling for intelligence, there were news about how adoption of fable was lower than expected, only hitting 11% of enterprise spending for customers with anthropic, iirc 26% for Sol with openai customers.
in any case, I've been using open and closed models since sonnet 4, i remember when the best I could get was qwen 3 480b coder, you can definitely feel the gap closing going from that and GLM 4.5, to GLM 5.3, DeepSeek Flash V4.1, Kimi K3 etc, it's reached the point where i wish I had V4.1 at work, it's faster and bullshits me less when I use it in my personal projects. And I have unlimited access to fable 5.1
Well theres not much point in just parsing a large json file, there will always be more work which cant be done using SIMD and that work time will be significantly larger than the portion spent parsing.
Sometimes it's the other way around. Lockers for packages were first introduced in Germany (Packstation) then they were rolled out in the US almost a decade later.
Not having a lot of credit cards and the associated rewards is actually healthy. Research has shown lower social classes "pay" for the rewards due to paying the higher transaction fees. There was actually a relevant thread here a few days ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49432201 (How credit card rewards became a $9.2B wealth transfer)
Do you think Anthropic or OpenAI will eventually try to crack down on routing harnasses? Provide a more vertically integrated experience? They are already trying ro ship hardware products.
I will believe there is no moat when the revenues for Anthropic is not 70B. It seems like people want to throw away money and they don’t like switching
Indeed. I used to be on the upgrade program so I could upgrade every year, but decided to skip the 16 and keep my 15 until the 17 came out.
Even if you are upgrading every single year, it works out roughly the same to just buy every phone outright and then trade in last year's model -- you typically get ~half your purchase price back as trade-in value after a year anyway.
Hey that's not fair, there has been one actually useful "innovation" -- switching to USB-C like the rest of the world has been using for 10 years. Literally nothing has made me feel the slightest craving for a new iPhone since getting my 15 Pro Max.
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