There’s an astounding level of arrogance required to believe he is somehow uniquely capable of bringing about a technology especially considering Anthropic came after OpenAI where he worked.
Place yourself at the head of one of like 3 companies the entire rest of the world has been taking about nonstop for 4+ years now. You can move forward or you stop. If you move forward you get to have a hand in how stuff turns out and you make a gajillion dollars. If you stop, it's somebody else's hand in stuff, and you don't get to make a gajillion dollars. And if you shut it all down? Then you just cede to the competition. Everything happens anyway.
the obvious play is to get the government to shut down all the competition, and then make a gajillion dollars while making whatever at the worst level of effort that destroys the world anyways.
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the real play is using the accumulated power to get socialism and democratic control over the key aspects of the economy, such as where to build data centers, and how many. Nothing says you have to play the corporate game of competition
> Dude probably sleeps on a bed worth more than your networth.
I never understand shit like this coming out of people's mouths. Never.
It's not a judge of actual Worth as a human being, it's not a judge of capability or competence or ethics. It's not a judge of actual skill or ability. It doesn't make them a better cook, a better spouse, a better parent or lover. It doesn't make them more dangerous or more skilled at anything.
It makes them financially wealthy for at least a set period of time.
Cancer and time and 5.56mm still impact them the same way as every else.
It's Pharaoh worship psychology nonsense, and it's fucking embarassing to read.
Humans are perfectly capable of holding two conflicting beliefs at once. He can genuinely believe this trajectory is dangerous while also believing that if Anthropic stops, someone less cautious takes its place. There’s also such a thing as hope: you can participate in something while still trying to change where it ends up.
He’s at the head of a stampede. Being near the front gives him influence over its direction; it doesn’t give him the ability to stop it. If Anthropic sits down, the stampede doesn’t stop. Anthropic just gets trampled.
That contradiction is basically the entire problem I was describing.
you have to put at least a little bit of context on asks like if you want a reply. Nobody knows how much water you use, how big of a house / apt, how many bathrooms, etc.
The entire premise is stupid. Panels need to be large to have reduced install costs and wiring costs. Install costs dominate solar install pricing in the United states. It is far far cheaper to install a new roof and giant solar installation than to go with a solar roof. It's just a broken concept at the very start.
Rich media is where all the innovation is happening now and in the future.
Text-to-text is dead, has been since Mistral 7b.
Solved problem (you guys like that one don’t you)
They also demoted themselves from “authority on AI” to “in over our heads” by bowing out in the pathetically defeatist way they did at the worst time possible (Hailuo/MiniMax/Vidu coming up) - they naturally completely missed the wave on audio with random companies like Singify taking that market for free.
They just bowed out. They didn’t try. They didn’t try anything more than baseline text-to-text and they aren’t good at that (or code) either, compared to what others are doing.
It’s a really bad position to be in if you’re trying to be an Apple or Microsoft.
To have a mediocre product and then can’t even serve 75% of the mainstream use case.
I never used Sora but I recently tried Google Flow and the results are quite good. I have the feeling that Nano Banana 2 has been the image generation champion since it's release so maybe OpenAI feels that they cannot outcompete Google on this task?
On my experiments on GenAI Image Showdown, Nano Banana Pro slightly edges out NB2, though I'm not sure the cost difference makes it worth it.
And in pure qualitative terms, I'd agree that NB2/NB Pro are still on par with gpt-image-2, but gpt-image-2 is far easier to steer and is significantly better in terms of prompt adherence.
Unfortunately, it really depends who you consider a journalist. With internet advertising destroying journalism as a revenue source, as anyone can really say anything about who they are
Nukes also cannot kill everyone. Nuclear winter was proven to not be based on solid evidence, the earth remains very habitable after all nukes have gone off.
Show me that proof please. So far the counter evidence has not been convincing. FWIW I don’t think nuclear war will annihilate us. But it won’t be pleasant.
Actually, I've seen the take that the previous poster has made too. The wikipedia page is pretty good IMO. Proof of a hypothetical future event is pretty hard to get, but here's the wiki rabbit hole (if you're anything like me you'll find this fascinating and spend the next couple hours clicking links - you're welcome!).
Annie Jacobsen is awesome, her book about Area 51 was riveting, but I also cannot unsee "Capitalist Realism" and the idea that we keep picturing civilization-ending catastrophes because we don't want to go to work in the morning, and walking/biking everywhere and living in a small community is amazingly appealing to us at a base level. We yearn for the lifestyle of the apocalypse survivor, but none of us want to go through the apocalypse. Generally, I think we kind of say, "oh, it'll be the end of the world" because most of us (myself included) lack the imagination to really look beyond linear extrapolations of the status quo most of the time.
"More recent studies make use of modern global circulation models and far greater computer power than was available for the 1980s studies. A 2007 study examined the consequences of a global nuclear war involving moderate to large portions of the current global arsenal.[36] The study found cooling by about 12–20 °C in much of the core farming regions of the US, Canada, Europe, Russia and China and as much as 35 °C in parts of Russia for the first two summer growing seasons. The changes they found were also much longer-lasting than previously thought, because their new model better represented entry of soot aerosols in the upper stratosphere, where precipitation does not occur, and therefore clearance was on the order of 10 years.[26] In addition, they found that global cooling caused a weakening of the global hydrological cycle, reducing global precipitation by about 45%."
So the current theory is that there will indeed be a "nuclear winter"?
Seems pretty logical to me that if you blow up extreme amounts of particles into the stratosphere, that that will cause a reduction in energy that hits the surface from the sun...
This is what I'm saying constantly to people, I recognize it makes me fantastically obnoxious, but also, I'm gesturing wildly to the things that are happening and yelling, "THINGS DON'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY."
Then again, I'm also building my cabin in the woods.
You can't exceed roofline performance on hardware. There is an performance cap you can hit. This recursive self improvement stuff lets you be closer to the pareto frontier, but the idea that it is leading to some exponential growth is a total pipe dream.
I regularly do a “go to DynaTrace, look at how this service gets used in production then use a profiler and see if there’s any low hanging optimisations we could make” on stuff. LLMs are really good at doing everything that was fun about software development.
Ha, I have a whole hobby work-stream going on about finding low-hanging fruit in various open source projects to turn into valuable contributions.
Two premier sources: (1) look at good contributions someone already tried to make, but that got stuck in review or were otherwise abandoned. (2) look at user reported bugs and see if we can find a user reported bugs, and see if we can reproduce and fix cheaply.
Both are explicitly scoped as best-effort affairs: move on, if you can't quickly make progress.
Most of the work I have to do as a human is review and navigating the submission process: tokens are cheap these days, so you really need to make sure the contribution is actually worth someone's time to review.
Writing custom WMMA/MFMA kernels for an exact integer matrix multiplication library that uses RNS & CRT + Int8 GEMM to get ~90% of the theoretical i64 TOPS output from a 7900XTX (3.9 TOPS vs the 0.5 or so you get with naive hip-direct usage)
I'm not sure if you think that's a lot, but that was barely even 8 hours. I've had 200B+ months lol
The thing we should be incentivizing people to use here are batteries, in the exact same configuration. We do not in many places, need more solar power generation, but we need devices that slurp down power at 2pm and dump it out in the three hours after sundown. Utilities should be paying anyone who dumps power to the grid at peak post-sundown demand hours, so that it is a no-brainer to install such a thing.
At least in the US, no, for one simple reason: grids in the US rarely to never have an excess amount of renewable generation capacity.
In my area natural gas is a consistent 40-60% of generated power, with solar rarely reaching more than about 30-35% at high noon in the summer.
Right now (as in at this very minute, high noon) in CA ~70% of the power being generated is renewable. That's 30% that could be solar, and isn't.
When there's excess renewable generation capacity (or about to be), sure, let's talk about installations for storing it.
In the meantime utilities are deploying battery systems for virtual grid inertia, to avoid having to use "peaker" plants, reliability when transmission lines go down, and for transmission line maintenance.
That might have to do with existing deal structures to maintain a non-renewable base load. Something like, if cloud cover/wind suddenly changes, we want to ensure there is already X% of natural gas running so there is a less sudden surge. There is a lot behind the scenes planning to try and ensure grid robustness.
California is certainly curtailing a lot of energy. EIA report[0] said 3.4 TWh in 2024, which was a 29% increase over 2023. If I am reading this[1] chart correctly, the 2024 California demand was ~275TWh.
CASIO also has pages dedicated to curtailment with much of the data available[2].
Standby generation -- "spinning reserve" -- doesn't count as generated energy, because it's not. Until you're at that point you still can reduce natural gas consumption with more renewable.
California has huge amounts of excess renewable generation nearly every day, especially in spring and fall. Last April the grid operator curtailed 1.47 million MW/hrs of renewables, or about 2 GW per day. That's excess power the grid did not accept due to no demand. (source: https://www.caiso.com/documents/key-statistics-jul-2026.pdf)
In my mind the ideal solution is in addition to daily BESS time-shifting is seasonal time-shifting: long term storage of April excess for use in July.
Is this curtailment due to overproduction, curtailment due to inadequate _grid_ capacity, or some mixture? In Ireland there's now a _lot_ of curtailment, but it's mostly driven by inadequate grid capacity (wind power in particular expanded quicker than the grid could).
I think you had me until you mentioned long term storage. How do you store significant amounts of energy across seasons? I'm just not aware of anything other than pumped hydro power that has anywhere near the cap as capacity to do such a thing.
Generators don't ramp up/down immediately. Especially when peak power usage is 4-5pm, people getting off work, but also closer to sunset. That's a lot of power that needs to be generated immediately for stability.
A suggestion I liked was to time-shift water heaters as a thermal battery. Water heaters are a significant sink (~20%) of household energy. They are already installed and well insulated, you just want to over-heat them during cheap noon solar to off-set the heat losses over the day.
This is basically how solar hot water heaters work today (I have one). They are superheated during the day (75C/170F) with a mixing valve to produce warm, but not scalding, water to the tap. The tanks are also oversized with a backup electric heater for the top half of the tank.
It works pretty well for my climate. I wonder how it compares to PV panels driving an electric heater though. Neither is going to work very well during the winter but the hydronic based system probably needs to get above some base level of solar input to meaningfully heat the water. Whereas PV will always produce some electricity in the winter which can always be converted to heat.
> It is increasingly common practice around the world to regulate the storage water temperature to above 60 °C (140 °F), and to circulate or distribute water at a temperature less than 50 °C (122 °F). Water above these temperatures can cause scald injuries. Many countries, states, or municipalities now require that the temperature of all bath water in newly built and extensively refurbished domestic properties be controlled to a maximum of 48 °C (118 °F). Installing thermostatic mixing valves can ensure that water is delivered at the required temperature, thereby reducing the risk of scalding accidents; it also reduces hot water consumption from a supply that is maintained at a higher temperature.
When we bought our house we had a heat pump water heater installed. The nominal tank water temperature is 80°C, and it mixes it to the desired temperature on output. It can also circulate water in a heat exchanger to keep your bath water from going luke-warm while you're in the bath.
We don't have solar but we do have a solar energy plan from our power company, so power during solar hours is charged at 0.5x rate in trade for the solar during the duck curve hours being 2x. So we have the hot water heater set to only heat during the solar hours and A/C set to shut off during duck curve hours.
This has resulted in our electricity costs for our house being lower than the combined electricity+gas costs for the apartment we lived in before (which was much smaller).
Don't expect that to last. £1 per kWh = £1000 per MWh. Even when things went crazy as sanctions kicked in and Russia were attempting Blitzkrieg in Ukraine the wholesale prices never hit £1000 per MWh.
They say £1/kWh is a Beta price, that makes sense as a way to burn investor money to get people interested. Their real price is TBD. Would you take 25p per kWh with a £5 per month guarantee ? That could be at least in the ballpark of working.
Well it's just a bonus on top, I'm not counting on it. Storing solar and backup is the primary reason for the battery. On June 24 at 19:00, agile octopus prices were about £0.85/kWh, there isn't a single simple price for electricity.
It's true that there isn't a "single simple price" but the only way you're getting more for your power than a wholesaler can sell it for is that they're paying far more than it's worth. Stability services aren't free, but we're not talking about a 10% premium here, closer to 10x
Be careful with these kind of long term sell back agreements.
In the USA lots of early adopters of solar did so under net metering agreements where excess electricity is sold back at full price. After a number of years it was costing the utility companies too much money. So they updated the terms such that residents with solar buy electricity at retail prices (~$0.25) but sell it back at wholesale (~$0.04).
Yes, I think the key thing here to to not guarantee that pricing like they did in California over decades. Yes, the benefit will eventually be reduced. But that is considered success is it not?
well, California currently is guaranteeing that benefit to nem 1 people for twenty years. I would much rather penalize those people than make everyone else pay a subsidy to them, as we are currently doing. They should bare the risk of their investment and get paid market rate.
My issue today is .. I cannot be paid market rate for giving back to the grid, even in hours when California needs the power.
Not exclusively. A few power companies (like SRP) innovated here with TOU plans that have variable costs throughout the day. You can save huge amounts of monthly spend by moving energy intensive work to off-peak hours and by “priming” things ahead of peak hours, like over-cooling your house ahead of the peak window.
The most costly part of an infrastructure build out is supporting peak-of-peak - that capacity exists year round to service the demand generated by peak mid-day usage during a heatwave in July.
If you can “lop off” that peak - it dramatically reduces the infra build out cost.
Peak-of-peak tends to correspond with sunny days: mid-day in summer. I could see battery-less solar being a useful tool there.
related tangent: install costs of batteries and solar in California are insane. I recently had battery and solar installed, and labor and permitting were 60% the cost of the system. Systems without either of those markedly bring down the cost.
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