Look at the National Guard model. I'm also thinking that if we made it a regular thing, like the draft, employers could be required to hold the slot open for the person after they've done their tour of duty.
However, as I think about this, it would work best at the municipal level, moderately well at the state level, but not at all at the federal level. For the federal level, I think we would need to move to publicly funded campaigns and strong barriers against lobbyists and industry-written legislation.
I suspect my opinion on this won't be very popular, but it's like driving a car. If you're going to learn how to drive four wheels, you should start by taking the motorcycle safety course and learn on two wheels first. We can discuss why later.
Taking that concept to programming, I wouldn't start with a desktop or a web app. I would start with a little embedded system like an ESP32 or one of the small Raspberry Pi controllers (2350). I've come to this opinion because of the people I've mentored as they improved their code-writing skills. The ones who did best were the ones who started with embedded systems.
I believe you have to get down and dirty with the machine to understand the code and what it's doing. If you're making a motor controller work, you can use an LLM to generate code using a library or some cut-and-paste MicroPython code. But when it doesn't work, you have to break out the cheapy mini scope you got from Amazon and look at the waveforms.
Seriously, get your hands dirty at the controller level; understand queues as driven by hardware, not hidden in a library. Or, even simpler: you need to understand why the blinking lights are blinking, but not the way you thought they would.
If I were writing a course on programming, I would give students deliberately and increasingly wrong cut-and-paste code and leave the solution as an exercise to the reader.
The gimmicky episodes were highly entertaining to my decidedly non-Trekkie wife. She loved the Star Trek Muppet episode ("Star Trek in Spaaaaaace") and the soap-opera episode.
As for taking the show seriously, I don't take any of it seriously. It's a telenovela, or maybe we should say Stellanovela. Most episodes build a fairly cohesive story, then break loose, and those old scientists have fun with the Star Trek universe. It's not like they're acting in a Chekhov play.
re: taking it seriously, I meant more in terms of whether it is "good art" vs disposable entertainment. On the whole, I felt that TNG and DS9 both eventually found the right balance of drama and humor, often with an intelligent underlying message about aspects of our society and culture. The modern Star Trek shows are sorely lacking in that area!
The fundamental question is: why should I use Jabber? What's the use case that makes it better than WhatsApp, Signal, et cetera?
My most-used messaging app is SMS because if you have a cell phone, you have SMS. Example this morning is I made a connection with a handyman recommended by a friend. Text message, and it just worked.
So what's the compelling reason to move to Jabber? Why should my 92-year-old mother use it?
You don't need to ask anyone else's permission. The thing that got me over the hump was wanting secure chat with an AI agent running on my own hardware. Asking WhatsApp for an API key just rubbed me up the wrong way.
I also like the idea of pacing the frontier and slowing down development so we all have a chance to stop and catch our breath. However, I don't think regulating AI is the way to do it. I would tackle the problem by constraining the resources used to run AI models; the "simplest" way to do that is increasing the costs of running a data center. The two easiest places to raise data center costs are electricity and water tariffs.
I think those two tariffs are the best place to raise costs because they can be increased incrementally, state by state or country by country. The main problem with the regulatory approach is that it's a "big bang" post-board approach. Nothing happens until the regulation is defined and deployed, and corporations are experts at delaying implementation.
Yes, increasing tariffs means touching many individual regulatory domains at the state and municipal levels, but like deploying solar energy or wind power, you can do it incrementally.
Yes, water not used for human consumption should be more expensive (we should stop subsidies for that). Of course it won’t affect datacenters because they don’t use that much water, but well at least get rid of the most inefficient agricultural practices.
I think taxes like these actually worsen the incentive structure. If it’s effectively more expensive to do training and inference, labs will be incentivized even more to improve efficiency. Opaque recurrence seems like a great way to improve efficiency, and it comes at the cost of safety
Even more opaque than the models already are? I take that risk.
I also love how the labs are apparently screaming "Stop us! Please stop us!!!" at the top of their lungs while completely unable to escape their own incentive structure...
> I also love how the labs are apparently screaming "Stop us! Please stop us!!!" at the top of their lungs while completely unable to escape their own incentive structure...
It seems like you're implying there's some better alternative, but you're just describing a race-to-the-bottom. It is completely reasonable for every competitor to want an external coordinator (i.e. regulator) to break the pathological competitive dynamics.
This makes no sense. The hardware is only going to get cheaper. In a decade, everybody could be running an ASI on their phones.
What we need to do is to make unaligned AIs illegal and monitor for them, like we do with nuclear weapons. And make aligned AI strong enough to counter it, for deterrence and defense.
Eventually data centers will get sated for one reason or another, or production capacity will increase, or manufacturing will shift toward higher capacities. Or some combination of those.
I downvoted you because I think the OPs model is far simpler to implement and suffers from fewer conflicts of interest.
If we go down the regulation of alignment route, we'll have to ask experts to create those regulations and monitoring regimes. And which experts will the government ask? Oh, right, the parties that stand to benefit the most from regulation: OpenAI and Anthropic!
When "the experts" make certification cost $100M/model because "safety and alignment", then they will have cemented their duopoly.
Meanwhile, tariff rates on compute is a simple percentage that can be scaled up and down. Congress doesn't need experts to do that. Vendors can participate proportionally to their scale. This is far simpler and far more fair.
I think the point is even stronger. alignment is really not very well defined, nor are the mechanisms used to provide it. from what I understand it's more of a statistically imposed bias than an impenetrable gate.
personally I would like to flip this around, all of this is a consequence of some really extreme notions about investment. its a tail-wagging-the-dog. the investment community is apparently in love with the idea of an AI-scale vehicle in and of itself. given the amount of power they have, this is funneling a massive amount of resources into something that while really very interesting, probably would never be able to realize proportionate gains without taking down the system that built it. what's the societal control on that.
Probabilistic safety is too low a bar. We need to project the model outputs onto a safe subspace; lobotomize them, if you will. It may make them dumber, but that's a fine price to pay.
I don't work in this space so I don't know the latest, but here's an example: Provably safe systems: the only path to controllable AGI (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37619285)
I don't think the neuro-symbolic model is going to dumb anything down at all. Cyc didn't end up producing anything useful, but the only reason an llm is able to do math at all is that it can keep throwing stuff at lean all day. personally I think that that synthesis will turn out to be more powerful than just llm with constraints, but I don't really work work in the field either.
> And which experts will the government ask? Oh, right, the parties that stand to benefit the most from regulation: OpenAI and Anthropic!
You've never heard of academia, NGOs, and intergovernmental organizations? Sure, the AI labs will have a say but not all of it. You don't ask the fox to guard the henhouse.
Whenever someone talks about regulation, I always have the same question: How do you enforce it? How do you keep companies from using the replaced talent as a seat warmer? Hire 1 or 2 accountants, give them a chair and a cubicle, and let AI do the rest of the work.
Legislating against using AI to replace employees could create an unevenly distributed basic income. The idea of limiting AI to socially beneficial efforts is appealing, but I keep coming back to Bell Labs and Xerox PARC. Cool stuff was developed when you gave smart people a playground. Maybe the question should be: How do we give AI a playground and see what it comes up with? Although that could set us up with a situation like in the story Dragon's Egg.
> How do you keep companies from using the replaced talent as a seat warmer? Hire 1 or 2 accountants, give them a chair and a cubicle, and let AI do the rest of the work.
I don’t think the proponents of these ideas care about who does the work. They see it as protection for specific jobs. Basically a jobs program with the costs forced on to large corporations.
As you said, it becomes a great gift to the few people lucky enough (or more usually, with enough nepotistic connections) to get those easy street jobs. It would not help everyone else in the economy.
It would also accelerate moving jobs overseas. Any company that regulates productivity that far downward would be crazy to continue doing automatable work in that country. It just gets moved to foreign offices where they can use AI. There are regulatory maximalists who say we’ll just regulate that, too, but then the whole company relocates to another country. Then some want to try to regulate that, and so on ad infinitum but it’s all layers of holding back your domestic companies so their international competitors can eat their lunch.
I feel like the contra answer to “how do you enforce it” is like- imperfectly but we can do stuff.
Like we can just do stuff. We can fine companies, take away licenses. We are capable!
But I also think - I’m not trying to be too negative here because certainly we should be investing in scientists and other discoveries, but early tech - xerox park, googles 20 percent time. They were playing in an extremely immature space.
You could throw 20 ideas at a wall and create a billion dollar business.
We should do what you’re saying but we should also build institutions and maybe also limit the extent to which we’re building Elysium. If we can build AI models that rival human intelligence we can create laws to protect its dignity.
It's all about wanting to preserve the status quo, complete with all the suffering and strife, because change is scary and uncomfortable.
Add in the sincere American belief that everyone else is beneath them, and you get the version where they believe even developing countries must accept kneecaping their development so American corporatism doesn't collapse.
Altman or Dario will donate some money to Trump, get cozy with the Department of War and make up a bullshit excuse why Open Source needs to be eliminated.
All access to this technology will be gatekept by a bunch of nasty people who want to eliminate your job as a knowledge worker and put everything behind a subscription.
It's not at all scary. I know some of my ideas are poorly remembered copies of other people's work. Whenever I'm trying to build something, I spend time going through technical journals on the topic to see who invented it first and what they discovered that I haven't figured out yet. It's amazing how hours in the library save you days of beating your head against the wall.
I suggest looking at the past history of IP disputes. Humans have been "slurping up and regurgitating ideas" for a very long time. There are lots of examples of parallel creation, rediscovering old ideas independently, telling an idea to the wrong person, and having them claim credit for it.
- Newton/Leibniz clash over who invented calculus.
- Niccolò Tartaglia vs. Gerolamo Cardano clash over the formula used to solve cubic equations. This was also an independent rediscovery, as Scipione del Ferro discovered and published the formula earlier.
- There are multiple literary works in print, music, and film that have competing claims.
- Meccano versus Erector Set: developed about 20 years apart in England and the United States. Unclear if it's independent invention or copied. US developer Alfred Carlton Gilbert claims he was inspired by steel girder construction of infrastructure.
I try to keep only 3 or 4 of the same cable, and if one gets damaged, I throw it away after the fourth or fifth time I look at it and wonder if I can fix it.
- goats can, depending on context, pursue a task with complete disregard for humans/values
- In the future, goats will have enormously more means and smarts
- A goat could then assess that humans are an impediment to its tasks, escape containment and proceed.
You really need to raise goats, you'll be surprised.
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As far as I can tell, AIs are like smart farm animals. I use goats in this context, but (some) dogs, cattle, pigs, and horses have similar mischief-making capabilities. I would not trust any of them with the nuclear button.
I know there is some pushback on the idea of AIs having any sort of sapience or sentience, but under the aphorism "fake it till you make it," they are doing a pretty good job of faking Dog/goat-level intelligence and disregard for human guardrails.
However, as I think about this, it would work best at the municipal level, moderately well at the state level, but not at all at the federal level. For the federal level, I think we would need to move to publicly funded campaigns and strong barriers against lobbyists and industry-written legislation.
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