I don't think programming in its current form will become similar to unskilled labor. The important part about the examples at the beginning of the article (construction, factory workers) is that there were engineers (smart experts) behind the innovation that simplified a task so that an unskilled laborer could do it.
Can programming become so dumbed down that anyone could do it? Sure, there are plenty of tools out there that are "App Makers" for whatever platform/genre you want. But are those tools churning out apps that make a company? I haven't seen one.
The thing about software is that it is a ton of small pieces put together to create something new and unique. Factory workers put together a ton of small pieces, but to create something that has already been invented. A car, for example, has a specification created by smart people and put together by unskilled workers and machines.
Can programming become so dumbed down that anyone could do it? Sure, there are plenty of tools out there that are "App Makers" for whatever platform/genre you want. But are those tools churning out apps that make a company? I haven't seen one.
The thing about software is that it is a ton of small pieces put together to create something new and unique. Factory workers put together a ton of small pieces, but to create something that has already been invented. A car, for example, has a specification created by smart people and put together by unskilled workers and machines.